Nassim Nicholas Taleb on X
Electricity policymakers, here's an important insight in the face of today's incredible uncertainty: "...taking estimates as objective truth is the greatest mistake a decision-maker can make. This work explains the central point of The Black Swan: one must treat the future as capable of delivering more frequent and impactful surprises than are found in the records of the past." This is why true markets are better at dealing with uncertainty than our electricity "markets". In true markets, many parties with many views act upon their unique estimate. The cost of a bad estimate falls on the back of those parties. In our electricity "markets", the "market" operator comes up with a view based on their understanding and develops the one estimate to rule them all. The cost of a bad estimate in this case falls on the back of consumers.
"Consumer Regulated Electricity" (CRE) is state level policy that would enable a true market space within electricity focused on the rapid and incredibly uncertain growth. The more growth that CRE absorbs, the lower the cost of a bad estimate which gets placed on consumers.
