Summer Peak Methodologies
Dealing with forecast risk by using a reasonable proxy like history makes good sense. That's what ERCOT does below by essentially cutting back the growth forecasts by half. That's just one guess however. It could be right, but more likely it will be wrong. And given the large forecasted growth, it could be wrong by a large amount. Rather than locking in the future based on ERCOT's one guess, "Consumer Regulated Electricity" or CRE would have multiple parties taking action based upon their own unique views of the growth. Forecast risk is a complex economic problem and complex economic problems demand having more parties taking action rather than just one. Here is a link to the entire ERCOT deck. https://www.ercot.com/files/docs/2025/04/07/8.1-Long-Term-Load-Forecast-Update-2025-2031-and-Methodology-Changes.pdf
