ERCOT shows high probability of rolling outages in a winter storm

There's a common assumption that the existing grids are the most reliable of all possible electricity options. We struggle to see that given the 100 years of heavy regulation, dominance by monopoly utilities, and an only indirect connection to market forces. Such an assumption therefore feels similar to thinking that the US Postal Service is the best option "when it absolutely, positively has to be there overnight" (that's an old FedEx slogan). And just as FedEx built a much better choice by starting with a clean sheet of paper, we're convinced that entrepreneurs could achieve something similar in electricity.

ERCOT, which is the gold standard of RTOs/ISOs, is showing cracks in that common assumption. They recently reported that if Texas were hit by severe weather similar to Winter Storm Uri "...that peak would mean a 65% chance of rolling outages."

https://www.douglewin.com/p/ercot-shows-high-probability-of-rolling